January 1990 THE CHANGING FACE OF AMERICA By Robert C. Trojanowicz, Ph.D. and David L. Carter, Ph.D. In the next century America's population will change considerably. According to demographers, in less than 100 years, we can expect white dominance of the United States to end, as the growing number of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians together become the new majority. (1) As we approach the 21st century, we already see white America growing grayer. In the past decade, there has been an estimated 23-percent increase in the number of Americans 65 and older. (2) In fact, more people of retirement age live in the United States now than there were people alive in this country during the Civil War. But while the average age of all Americans is now 32, the average age of blacks is 27; Hispanics 23. (3) By 2010 more than one-third of all American children will be black, Hispanic, or Asian. (4) These dramatic changes in the overall make-up of American society have profound implications for law enforcement, particularly because many of the legal and illegal immigrants flooding into this country are of different races, ethnic groups, religions, and cultures. Many do not have even a rudimentary knowledge of the English language. To understand fully what such immigration will mean for policing in the 21st century requires exploring some crucial questions. Who are these new immigrants? How many are there? Why do they come here? What new demands will they place on law enforcement in the future? How can the police prepare today to meet these changing needs? THE NEW IMMIGRANTS For many of us, the word ``immigrant'' evokes two vivid images: 1) The wave after wave of Europeans flooding through Ellis Island, and 2) the metaphor of the ``melting pot.'' These two memories often converge in a romanticized view of the past as a time when those ``poor, hungry, huddled masses'' from other countries required only a generation or two for their offspring to become full-fledged Americans. However, a closer look shows that many immigrant groups found the path to full assimilation difficult. For many this meant struggling to find ways to blend in without losing their unique cultural identities. Our past experience should also forewarn us that race constitutes the biggest barrier to full participation in the American dream. In particular, the black experience has been unique from the beginning because most African Americans did not come here seeking freedom or greater opportunity, but were brought to this country as slaves. And the lingering problem of racism still plays an undeniable role in preventing blacks from achieving full participation in the economic and social life of this country. De facto segregation persists in keeping many minorities trapped in decaying crime- and drug-riddled, inner-city neighborhoods. Though blacks constitute only 12 percent of the total U.S. population, as a result of ``white flight,'' many of this country's major cities have minority majorities, while the suburbs that surround them remain virtually white. The role of race as an obstacle to full assimilation and participation is of obvious concern since almost one-half of all legal immigrants over the past decade have been Asians Chinese, Filipino, Indian, Korean, Vietnamese, and Kampucheans (Cambodians) and slightly more than one-third have been from Latin America. (5) Though 9 of 10 Hispanics are counted as ``white,'' (6) there is no doubt that they face discrimination because of their Hispanic ethnicity. At the same time, only 12 percent of the immigrants since 1980 have been Europeans, whose experience would be likely to mirror more closely those of their counterparts in the past. (7) Because minorities are expected to continue to exhibit higher birth rates than whites, demographers expect minorities to constitute an even larger percentage of young people in this country in the near future. By 2020 a majority of children in New Mexico, California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Louisiana will be minorities blacks, Asians, and Hispanics. (8) White males have traditionally dominated our society, in power and wealth as well as sheer numbers. Over the past few decades, both minorities and women have made significant gains, particularly in the business world. Yet, both groups still earn significantly less than their white male counterparts, and they have yet to attain leadership roles in the public and private sectors equal to their respective numbers in society. Certain questions naturally arise. In the future, will the power and wealth of white males erode as their numbers decline? Will minorities band together as a new coalition or splinter apart into competing special interests? How will mainstream attitudes change along the way? Are we embarking on a new era of tolerance and cooperation or a new era of hostility, in which various groups will battle each other for status, dollars, and power? THE NUMBERS When we look at the number of legal immigrants arriving each year, their overall numbers appear deceptively small compared to the more than 255 million people who already live here. In fiscal year 1988, a total of 643,000 newcomers arrived, (9) but their potential impact becomes clearer if we remember that would mean roughly 6.5 million new residents in just the next decade, even if immigration rates did not rise. And the picture becomes clearer still when we consider that many immigrants often cluster in specific areas, which makes their combined impact on certain communities far greater than if they were dispersed evenly nationwide. Shortly after the turn of the 21st century, Asians are expected to reach 10 million. (10) Today's 18 million Hispanics may well double by then. (11) Included in such totals, of course, are the illegal immigrants who find their way into America each year. While the actual numbers are unknown, the 1987 law that granted amnesty to those undocumented aliens and agricultural workers who qualified allowed roughly 3 million to stay. (12) Another indicator is that the Border Patrol now apprehends roughly 900,000 people who try to enter illegally each year, down 800,000 from 1986, the year before the employer sanctions of the new Federal immigration legislation went into effect. (13) Again, we most often think first of undocumented aliens as being Mexican nationals and other Latin Americans who penetrate our southern borders; but these figures also include substantial numbers of people from the Pacific Rim and the Caribbean, as well as the Irish, Canadians, and Western Europeans who often come in as tourists and then decide to stay. WHY THEY COME Current U.S. immigration policy gives highest priority to reuniting families. Among the 265,000 legal immigrants in 1988 subject to limitations (quotas based on country of birth), almost 200,000 were admitted on the basis of ``relative preference,'' that is, they were related to a permanent resident or citizen of the United States. (14) Immediate relatives (spouses, parents, and children) of U.S. citizens are exempt from restrictions, and in 1988, they constituted approximately 219,000 of the 379,000 in the exempt category. (15) The next largest category of legal immigrants admitted is refugees and those seeking asylum, roughly 111,000 in 1988. (16) To qualify under these provisions, applicants must persuade the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) that they are fleeing persecution at home, not that they are simply escaping poverty. An article in the Wall Street Journal alleged that the INS routinely rejects applicants from Haiti and El Salvador and that it is also difficult for Nicaraguans, Ethiopians, Afghanis, and Czechs to qualify. (17) The fourth largest category of legal immigrants includes those given preference on the basis of their education and occupation, less than 54,000 in 1988 only 4 percent of that year's total. (18) Morton Kondracke in an article in The New Republic notes, ``...this tiny number provided 52 percent of the mathematicians and computer scientists who came in and 38 percent of the college teachers.'' (19) Chances are, however, that the immigration policy will not change dramatically in the near future, though efforts will be made to allow more people with preferred job skills to immigrate. The question is whether they should be admitted in addition to or instead of those scheduled to be reunited with their families. This also has racial implications, because shifting from family to occupational considerations would mean a shift from Asians and Latin Americans toward more Europeans. THE LAW ENFORCEMENT CHALLENGE All of these issues have obvious implications for law enforcement, but perhaps the first challenge is to remember that generalities tend to be false. Each immigrant, whether legal or illegal, arrives not only as part of a larger group but also as an individual with unique gifts and faults. Particularly where newcomers cluster together in poor neighborhoods with high crime rates, the police, perhaps even more so than the population at large, must guard against stereotyping. Some newcomers may be too timid to interact widely in their new communities; yet, they may contact the police. The police, therefore, have a tremendous responsibility because those first impressions matter, not just in terms of how new arrivals will see the police but how they view the entire society. Imagine how much Asians and Latin Americans have to learn, especially if they are not proficient in English. Who will assure them that the public police do not use torture or keep files on their activities? Will they understand the difference between the public police and private police? Will they really believe we have no secret police? Many of today's new arrivals come from places where the police are feared, not respected, and the last thing they would be likely to do is ask an officer for help or share any information. We have had our whole lives to understand the written and unwritten rules of this society, with all their nuances. It is unreasonable to expect immigrants to absorb these cultural characteristics in even a few years. Police officers so often see people at their worst, not their best. And because police officers focus so much attention on crime, there is always the danger that they will have a distorted view of who the ``bad guys'' are and how many there are of them. This temptation to generalize from a few to the many is a particularly critical problem for the police in the case of immigrants. A small fraction of the immigrants coming in will be career criminals, eager to ply their trades here. The police have had to battle Asian drug gangs and Jamaican posses, as well as the alleged hardened criminals that entered this country as part of the Mariel Boat Lift. Moreover, there will always be the larger group that turns to crime when faced with economic hardship. Police departments must take steps to ensure that officers remain sensitive to the reality that the majority of the newcomers are law-abiding people, eager to build a new life. Because police departments are a microcosm of a larger society, it would be naive to assume that everyone who wears the uniform is free of bias. In addition, the statistics verify that there is a link between race and crime, but the mistake lies in seeing this as cause and effect. Studies show that blacks are arrested for violent crimes at rates four times higher than their overall numbers would justify; Hispanics at rates two and a half times what they should be, even though they are often poorer than blacks. (20) But we have only to look at the rates of violent crimes in the black-run nations of Africa, which are nowhere near as high as they are here, to see that our problems are not caused by their genes but by our culture. Perhaps the increasing minority numbers will help make this society more color blind. Unfortunately, many of these new immigrants will become victims, particularly of violent crimes that disproportionately afflict minorities. Ignorance of our laws and customs can make them easy targets for all kinds of predators. Fear of the police will also work against them. And if they cannot speak the language, at least not well, it may be difficult for them to share information. TOWARD A SOLUTION: COMMUNITY POLICING As even this cursory analysis shows, immigrants face all the problems, and more, that everyone in this culture faces. The primary challenge for law enforcement will be to find ways to meet their needs with special concern for their racial, ethnic, cultural, and religious diversity--and their specific vulnerabilities. A community policing approach offers law enforcement officers unique flexibility in tailoring their response to meet local needs in ways that promote sensitivity and respect for minority concerns. This new philosophy and organizational strategy proposes that only by decentralizing and personalizing police service will law enforcement be able to meet the needs of an increasing diverse society. Community policing rests on the belief that no technology can surpass what creative human beings can achieve together. It says that police departments must deploy their most innovative, self-disciplined, and self-motivated officers directly into the community as outreach specialists and community problem-solvers. Only by freeing these new community policing officers (CPOs) from the isolation of their patrol cars, so they can interact with people face-to-face in the same areas every day, can departments develop the rapport and trust necessary to encourage people to become active in the process of policing themselves. In addition to serving as full-fledged law enforcement officers, CPOs would work to reduce fear of crime and the physical and social disorder and neighborhood decay that act as magnets for a host of social ills, including crime and drugs. They also can serve as the community's ombudsmen to city hall, to ensure prompt delivery of vital government services, and as the community's link to the public and private agencies that can help. Particularly in the case of immigrants, community policing allows the department an opportunity for mutual input and enrichment. CPOs can help educate immigrants about our laws and customs and how to cope with our culture. Equally important, this grass-roots, two-way information flow allows immigrants the opportunity to teach the department how to take their particular concerns into account, with dignity and respect for their cultural identities. THE RIGHT PEOPLE FOR THE JOB One of the more difficult problems that police departments will continue to face is how to develop the capacity to speak to new immigrants in their native tongues. It is often easier in theory than in practice to recruit qualified bilingual candidates from immigrant populations, especially since many come from countries where police work may not be a respectable career. This issue raises more questions than answers. How many officers should be bilingual? How proficient must they be? Should foreign language be a requirement for college degrees in criminal justice? What will it cost police departments to meet this need? Is this an opportunity to use civilian volunteers? Can a department develop the capacity to speak to all in their native tongues? Such a changing society also will demand that the police remain sensitized to the issue of how to serve people who exhibit racial, ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity. This is a two-fold concern. First, it implies that departments must establish and enforce guidelines to ensure existing officers discharge their duties with care and concern. Second, it means that departments must recruit candidates who are the best capable to handle the increasing challenge posed by the future. To recruit officers from minority populations is a logical response to this challenge. However, a study by the Center for Applied Urban Research on the Employment of Black and Hispanic Officers shows recent efforts aimed at minority recruiting have produced uneven results. Almost one-half of the big city police departments made significant progress in hiring black officers; yet, 17 percent reported a decline. Forty-two percent of the departments made gains in hiring Hispanics, but almost 11 percent reported a decline. (21) Part of the reason related to whether the departments pursued affirmative action plans, but there are also concerns that some minorities leave because of better career opportunities elsewhere, often because policing is perceived as falling short in providing meaningful career development. Overall, however, a 1989 study by the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF) found that in cities with a population of 50,000 or more, the number of black and Hispanic police officers was generally proportionate to the population. (22) The PERF study also indicated that college-educated officers exhibit the greatest sensitivity to the diversity that will increasingly become the hallmark of this society. The study also verified that the officers with at least some college education are not only increasing in numbers in the rank and file but also in police management as well. (23) But again, retaining these officers can be difficult. Therefore, research supporting the widespread perception that community policing not only makes officers feel safer but also that it provides job enlargement and job enrichment, indicating that community policing may be a potent new way to keep the best people for the challenges that lie ahead. (24) POLICE POLICY TOWARD ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS The obvious obstacle in building trust between the police department and immigrants who are here illegally stems from their fears that the police will inform INS officials about their status. One chief of police in a border city wrestled with this issue and decided that the police must serve the needs of all members of the community. The depart-ment's policy is that it will not inform INS about undocumented residents except, of course, in cases where the police arrest someone for a crime. The chief based his decision on the argument that it is the job of the INS, not the police, to track down and deport illegals. He also believes that this policy has helped his department gain the trust of the entire community, so that people in the community are now far more willing to share the information that the police need to do their best job. This is a decision that more chiefs will face in the future, and they must weigh the best interests of the department and the community within the dictates of their individual consciences. SERVING THE ENTIRE COMMUNITY The successful assimilation of new immigrant groups, particularly those of different races, will depend on changing attitudes in mainstream society. This is of particular concern, because current trends portend a society in which the youngest members will increasingly consist of minority youths, while the ranks of the elderly will remain far whiter. These trends also show that younger workers, many of whom will be minorities in lower-paying service jobs, increasingly will be asked to pay for the needs of primarily white retirees, whose health care costs alone may prove staggering. Adding to these generational tensions is the incendiary issue of crime, with its overlay of age and race considerations. The bulk of the crimes committed in this society are perpetrated by the young, at rates far beyond what other industrialized Western nations endure. Though the elderly exhibit lower-than-average rates of actual victimization, they rank among the groups with the greatest fear of crime. In some neighborhoods, we see the elderly becoming virtual prisoners of fear. Indeed, this self-imposed imprisonment which reduces their exposure to the threat explains in part why they are not victimized more often. Because crime and youth are so strongly linked, perhaps our aging society foretells a steep decline in our overall rates of crime. Crime rates have already begun to fall as the bulge of the ``baby boomers'' continue to grow out of their most crime-prone years, but not as much as had been anticipated. Various factors raise concern that we may not soon see a dramatic drop in crime the growing gap between rich and poor, drugs, teenage pregnancy, illiteracy, high unemployment among minority youths, the continued proliferation of guns, and alarming rates of child abuse and neglect. Even if we are fortunate enough to see a substantially safer future during our lifetime, we can also expect that people will begin to demand more. For example, the police will be asked to pay more attention to other wants and needs that are now often ignored or given short shrift because of the current crisis posed by serious crime. CONCLUSION Community policing offers an important new tool to help heal the wounds caused by crime, fear of crime, and disorder. In one community that might mean a community police officer recruiting elderly volunteers from a senior center to help immigrant youths become more fluent in English. This offers the hope that those retirees will overcome their fears, while at the same time enhancing a young person's opportunity to perform well in school and on the job. In a different neighborhood, the challenge could be for the CPO to encourage blacks, Hispanics, and Asians to cooperate together in persuading area businesses to help provide recreational activities for juveniles. The possibilities are bounded only by the imagination and enthusiasm of the officers and the people they are sworn to serve, if the police are given the resources, time, and opportunity to work with people where they live and work. It would be naive to suggest that community policing is a panacea that can heal all the wounds in any community. But it has demonstrated its ability to make people feel safer and improve the overall quality of community life. Today's challenge is to find new ways for law enforcement to contribute to make the United States a place where all people have an equal chance to secure a piece of the American dream for themselves and their children. Therefore, the urgent message is that we must begin preparing now, so that we can do even more toward that worthy goal in the ever-changing future. FOOTNOTES (1) U.S. Census Bureau projections on future trends. (2) Thomas Exter, ``Demographic Forecasts On to Retirement,'' American Demographics, April 1989. (3) Reported on the NBC special, "The R.A.C.E.," hosted by Bryant Gumbel, September 6, 1989. (4) Joe Schwartz and Thomas Exter, "All Our Children," American Demographics, May 1989. (5) John Dillin, "Asian-American: Soaring Minority," The Christian Science Monitor, October 10, 1985. (6) Supra note 4. (7) Supra note 5. (8) Supra note 4. (9) "Immigration Statistics: Fiscal Years 1988 - Advance Report," U.S. Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service, Series IMM 88, April 1989. (10) Supra note 5. (11) Thomas Exter, "How Many Hispanics?" American Demographics, May 1987. (12) Morton Kondracke, "Borderline Cases," The New Republic, April 10, 1989. (13) Ibid. (14) Supra note 9. (15) Ibid. (16) Ibid. (17) Supra note 12. (18) Supra note 9. (19) Supra note 12. (20) Charles E. Silberman, Criminal Violence, Criminal Justice (New York: Random House, 1978), also Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice - Second Edition, U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, March 1988. (21) Samuel Walker, Employment of Black and Hispanic Police Officers, 1983-1988: A Follow-up Study, Occasional Paper, Center for Applied Urban Research, University of Nebraska at Omaha, February 1989. (22) David L. Carter, Allen Sapp, and Darrel Stephens, The State of Police Education: Policy Direction for the 21st Century, Police Executive Research Forum, Washington, DC, 1989. (23) Ibid. (24) Robert C. Trojanowicz and Dennis W. Banas, Job Satisfaction: A Comparison of Foot Patrol Versus Motor Patrol Officers, Community Policing Series No. 2, National Neighborhood Foot Patrol Center (now the Center for Community Policing), Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 1985. About the authors: Dr. Robert Trojanowicz and Dr. David Carter are professors in the School of Criminal Justice at Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.